Written on: November 1, 2024
Crude oil and refined products futures are trading near and on both sides of the unchanged mark as of this writing. Market participants are looking ahead to monthly Canadian GDP figures and to US labor market, personal income, and personal consumption expenditures data (including inflation) for further direction.
Reuters reports that the prime minister of Lebanon has expressed hopes for a ceasefire agreement with Israel to be announced within days. In related news, Axios reports that CIA Director Burns has pushed for a 28-day ceasefire in Gaza, meeting with Qatari and Israeli counterparts on Sunday.
Japanese industrial production growth of 1.4% in September beat the 0.8% forecast. However, a retail sales slump of 2.3% the same month missed forecasts calling for a shallower drop of 1.3%. The Bank of Japan kept the overnight interest rate target at 0.25%, as widely expected. Chinese data were similarly mixed, as the CFLP Manufacturing PMI was a slight beat at 50.1, but the non-manufacturing PMI was a slight miss at 50.2. The Shanghai Composite rose by 0.42%, but the Hang Seng lost 0.31% and the Nikkei fell by 0.50%.
German retail sales figures for September were a positive surprise, as sales jumped 1.2% higher when a 0.5% drop had been predicted. In France, consumer price inflation came in at 1.2% this month, per the preliminary CPI reading, matching expectations. The flash October Eurozone HICP, however, saw a 2.0% year-on-year rise – above the 1.9% forecast, but with September inflation revised down from 1.8% to 1.7%. The Eurozone unemployment was 6.3% in September, below the 6.4% forecast, and the August rate saw a downward revision from 6.4% to 6.3%. European shares continued lower today, however, with the DAX down by 0.5%, the CAC 40 having lost 0.9%, and the FTSE 100 seeing a 0.8% loss as of this writing. Futures for the major US stock market indexes were also trading in the red, with losses of between 0.5% (Dow futures) and 0.9% (Nasdaq futures). The US dollar index was steady.
Brent crude gained $1.43 to close at $72.55 a barrel, WTI crude settled $1.40 higher at $68.61, gasoline futures gained 4.39 cents, settling at $1.995 per gallon, and heating oil jumped to $2.1876 per gallon but natural gas futures slipped 1.4 cents lower to settle at $2.845 per MMBTU.
The 1-5 and 6-10 day GFS temperature forecasts are calling for above-normal temperatures in the Northeastern and Midwestern consuming regions.