Written on: November 3, 2025
Monday, November 3, 2025
Energy prices are trading lower as of this writing on Monday amid news that OPEC+ will hike production in December, despite flat-to-higher trade in global equities. Market traders are looking ahead to the final October US Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Manufacturing Index for further direction. US construction spending data is delayed due to the government shutdown.
Bloomberg reports that eight OPEC+ members announced on Sunday that they would raise oil production by 137,000 barrels a day in December, as widely expected. However, the members also stated they would not boost production through the first three months of next year.
Crack spreads narrowed last Friday amid mostly higher trade in US equities and a drop in the US oil rig count, despite losses in European equities and strength in the US dollar. Brent crude edged up just 7 cents to hit $65.07 a barrel, WTI crude added 41 cents to close at $60.98 a barrel, gasoline futures fell by 1.03 cents to settle at $1.9931 per gallon, heating oil lost 2.88 cents to settle at $2.4312 per gallon and natural gas futures rose to settle at $4.124 per MMBTU.
The Shanghai Composite in China added 0.55% overnight and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.97%. The Tokyo Stock Exchange was closed for a holiday. The final Manufacturing PMI for October for India came in at 59.2, above the 58.4 flash reading. In economic news from Europe, the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for October in the Eurozone (50.0) and Germany (49.6) matched expectations. Meanwhile, the index for France (48.8) and the UK (49.7) beat expectations, coming in above their respective flash readings of 48.3 and 49.6. European shares were trading flat-to-higher this morning with the French CAC 40 flat, while the UK FTSE 100 had added 0.1% and the German DAX had risen 1.2%. Futures for the major US stock market indexes are seeing gains of between 0.1% (Dow futures) and 0.6% (Nasdaq futures) as of this writing. The US dollar index was flat this morning.
According to the GFS model, the 1-5 day forecast calls for below-normal temperatures in New England, while above-normal temperatures are expected in the Midwest. The 6-10 day outlook is for below-normal temperatures in the northeast and northern parts of the Midwest.