Written on: October 1, 2021

Energy Price Report October 2021

Friday, October 1, 2021

Petroleum Futures Mixed

Petroleum futures are trading mixed on Friday with gains in US stock market index futures and weakness in the US dollar likely supporting, while losses in European equities likely weighed on the price action. Market participants are awaiting US economic data in the form of personal income and outlays, the Markit Manufacturing PMI, the ISM Manufacturing Index, construction spending, the Consumer Sentiment Index, and the weekly US rig counts from Baker Hughes for further direction.

Commodity Price Fluctuations

Brent crude edged down 12 cents to $78.52 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 20 cents settling at $75.03, gasoline futures added 2.43 cents to settle at $2.2536 per gallon, heating oil settled 3.42 cents stronger at $2.3417 per gallon and natural gas futures jumped 39.0 cents higher to settle at $5.867 per MMBTU amid a tighter US market balance expectation for next week.

National Hurricane Center Update

According to the NHC, Hurricane Sam and Tropical Storm Victor are still expected to pose no threat to the US mainland nor to oil and gas infrastructure.

Overseas Economic News

The unemployment rate in Japan held steady at 2.8% in August, while forecasts called for a small increase to 2.9%. The Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for Japan rose from 51.2 to 51.5 in September, indicating a stronger expansion in the sector. Japan’s Tankan survey for the third quarter showed an increase of 0.5% in capital expenditures, while forecasts called for a 0.5% decrease. The survey also showed an increase in the manufacturing index for large manufacturers from 14 in the second quarter to 18 (consensus at 13) and from -7 to -3 for small manufacturers (-9 was expected). Despite mostly supportive economic data releases, the Nikkei closed 2.3% lower overnight. The Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges were closed today. The Markit/Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in India rose from 52.3 to 53.7 last month.

European Markets

In European news, the final Markit Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone came in at 58.6, just below consensus at 58.7. The index for Germany also missed expectations by coming in at 58.4 (vs. 58.5) and the French PMI came in at 55.0, below forecasts at 55.2. Retail sales in Germany rose 1.1% in August, missing the Econoday consensus at 1.5%. The Eurozone flash HICP rose 3.4% year-on-year last month, above expectations at 3.3%. The Narrow Core price level was up as well, by 1.9% year-on-year. As of this writing, the CAC 40 was down 0.2% and the DAX was off 0.3%. In UK news, the final CIPS/Markit Manufacturing PMI for last month came in at 57.1, above consensus at 56.3. The FTSE 100 had lost 0.8% this morning. On the other hand, US stock market index futures were seeing gains of around 0.35% as of this writing. Also supportive, the US dollar index was down 0.15%.