Written on: March 3, 2025
Monday, March 3, 2025
Refined products are trading mixed on Monday morning with heating oil losing over 1%, while gasoline futures had sky-rocketed to gains of over 13%. Gains in European equites, higher trade in US stock market index futures, and sizeable losses in the US dollar index were likely supporting. Energy traders are looking ahead to the final US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, the ISM Manufacturing Index and to US construction spending data for further direction.
In economic news from Asia last night, the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI for February came in at 50.8, slightly above the 50.4 expectation. Nevertheless, the Shanghai Composite edged down 0.12% overnight, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.28% and the Nikkei in Japan gained 1.70%. In India, the final Markit/Nikkei Composite PMI came in 56.3 last month, short of the 57.1 flash estimate. In European news, the final February S&P Global Composite PMI for France (45.8), Germany (46.5), and the UK (46.9) all saw a surprise upward revisions from the flash estimate. Furthermore, the February final Composite PMI for the Eurozone came in at 47.6, also above the unrevised 47.3 flash estimate. The flash Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the Eurozone showed consumer prices increased by 2.4% year-on-year in February, above the 2.3% consensus. Narrow core prices rose 2.6% year-on-year last month, matching expectations. As of this writing, the UK FTSE 100 was up 0.62%, the French CAC 40 had gained 0.88%, and the German DAX had risen 1.18% higher. US stock market index futures were seeing gains of between 0.23% (Dow futures) and 0.51% (Nasdaq futures). Also supportive, the US dollar index was down 0.59% this morning.
Crude oil and refined products futures traded flat to lower on Friday amid a stronger US dollar, despite dimmed prospects for a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, flat to higher trade in equities and the loss of 2 US oil rigs. WTI crude edged down 59 cents to $69.76 a barrel, Brent crude dropped 86 cents lower $73.18 a barrel, gasoline futures fell by 2.63 cents to settle at $1.9703 per gallon, heating oil led the way lower, losing 4.10 cents for a $2.3549 per gallon settlement and natural gas futures fell further of Friday, losing 10 cents to close at $3.834per MMBTU.
As of this morning, the latest 6-10 NOAA forecast calls for mostly well-above-normal temperatures in the Midwest and near to below-normal temperatures in the Northeast. The 8-14 day outlook is far less supportive as well-above-normal temperatures are expected to persist throughout the eastern half of the country.