Written on: April 2, 2025

Energy Price Report

April 2, 2025

Crude oil and refined products futures are trading flat to lower this morning with bearish weekly API crude stock data and losses in equities likely weighing on the price action, whereas a weaker dollar and slower Kazakh oil exports were supportive factors. Market participants are looking ahead to the March ADP US Employment Report and to factory orders figures for February for further direction, along with the weekly EIA petroleum inventory report.

Bloomberg reports that two of three moorings at a Black Sea export terminal have been suspended by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium after an order from the regulator. While the Kazakh Energy Ministry says shipments are on schedule, as each mooring can load at a rate of 80,000 barrels per hour, it would be impossible to match the 1.7mb/d loaded in March. Neither the specific problem nor a timeline for resolution were provided.

In bearish US news, the API reported a 6.04mb build in crude stocks for the week ended last Friday, against expectations for a 0.5mb dip (average of surveys conducted by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal). Distillate stocks were virtually unchanged, in-line with expectations for a 0.6mb dip, and a 1.60mb draw from gasoline inventories was consistent with expectations (-1.44mb) as well. Analysts surveyed by OPIS are looking for a 0.24mb decline in propane/propylene stocks in today’s EIA report.

In economic news this morning, the Nikkei/S&P Global India Manufacturing PMI for March was finalized at 58.1, an upward revision from the 57.6 flash estimate and higher than the February print of 56.3 – indicating expansion in the sector accelerated. The Nikkei rose by 0.28% last night, and the Shanghai Composite edged up 0.05%, but the Hang Seng closed down 0.02%. European shares were falling back this morning, with the UK FTSE 100 and French CAC 40 both down by 0.8% and the German DAX having dropped 1.5% lower as of this writing. Meanwhile, futures for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are seeing losses of 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.8%, respectively. Whereas this was unsupportive for crude, a 0.2% drop in the US dollar index was supportive.

The complex settled mixed, featuring wider refinery crack spreads yesterday. Brent and WTI crude futures both lost 28 cents, closing at $74.49 and $71.20 per barrel, gasoline futures rose by 1.18 cents to settle at $2.3025 per gallon, heating oil settled 95 points higher at $2.2889 per gallon and natural gas futures fell by 16.8 cents to $3.951 per MMBTU.

As of this morning, the latest 6-10 day NOAA forecast calls for near to below-normal temperatures across the eastern half of the country, and the 8-14 day outlook is similar but less supportive.