Written on: August 4, 2025
Monday, August 4, 2025
Crude oil futures were seeing losses to start August with news of another OPEC+ output hike, despite higher trade in US stock market index futures, gains in European shares, and losses in the US dollar index. With a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, market participants looked ahead to data on US factory orders for further direction.
In recent news, Bloomberg reported that OPEC+ members have agreed on another production increase despite ongoing forecasts that supply will soon exceed demand in global markets. According to Bloomberg, OPEC+ announced on Sunday that its members met and decided to boost output by 547kb/d in September, marking the final tranche of unwinding supply cuts.
Asian stock markets closed mostly higher overnight as the Nikkei in Japan lost 1.25%, while the China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose by 0.66% and 0.92%, respectively. In Europe, equities were trading higher this morning with the UK FTSE 100 up 0.41%, the French CAC 40 having added 0.86%, and with the German DAX having jumped 1.32% higher.
Futures for the major US stock market indexes saw gains of between 0.43% (Dow futures) and 0.70% (Nasdaq futures). The US dollar index dropped 0.38% lower.
Crude oil and refined products futures sold off last Friday along with US and European equities following an announcement of updated tariffs on a number of US trading partners, as well as largely unsupportive economic data releases, despite a drop in the value of the US dollar against a basket of foreign currencies. WTI crude futures settled $1.93 weaker at $67.33 a barrel, Brent crude plummeted $2.86 to close at $69.67 a barrel, heating oil tumbled 9.96 cents lower to reach a $2.299 per gallon, gasoline futures dropped 9.70 cents lower, settling at $2.1186 and natural gas futures fell by 2.3 cents to settle at $3.083 per MMBTU.
The NHC is currently tracking Tropical Storm Dexter as it moves northeast away from the US coast. Furthermore, the NHC is also tracking a disturbance in the Central Tropical Atlantic and gives it a medium 50% chance of cyclone formation over the next 7 days, along with another disturbance located just off the Southeastern US coast (30% cyclone formation chance over the next 7 days).