Written on: February 2, 2026
Monday, February 2, 2026
In the news this morning, Bloomberg reports that the US and Iran are expected engage in diplomatic talks over a new nuclear deal in the coming days. According to Bloomberg, Iran has shown growing interest in meeting with US officials – citing Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s comments stating that their “ready for diplomacy”.
In Japan, the final January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.5, unchanged from December’s readings. India’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI for the same month came in 55.4, below the 56.8 flash estimate. Asian stock markets lost ground overnight as the Nikkei in Japan fell by 1.25%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 2.23%, and as the Shanghai Composite in China dropped 2.48% lower. In European economic news this morning, the final January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for France (51.2), Germany (49.1), and the UK (51.8) all came in above their respective flash readings of 51.0, 48.7, and 51.6. The Index for the Eurozone as a whole also beat expectations by coming in at 49.5, slightly above the 49.4 flash print. Retail sales in Germany, on the other hand, rose by 0.1% month-on-month in December, as expected. The French CAC 40 was trading 0.59% higher as of this writing, the UK FTSE 100 had added 0.67%, and the German DAX had risen 0.85%. Conversely, US stock market index futures were trading flat-to-lower this morning as Dow futures had shed 0.05%, S&P 500 futures had lost 0.33%, and as Nasdaq futures were trading 0.60% lower. Also unsupportive for crude oil prices, the US dollar index had strengthened by 0.22% against a basket of foreign currencies as of this writing.
Diesel crack spreads widened last Friday as heating oil futures saw gains of over 5%, while crude oil futures settled flat-to-lower. Gains in European shares were supportive, whereas a rally in the US dollar, losses in US equities, and news of the US Treasury giving licenses for oil companies to operate in Venezuela might have weighed on the price action.
Brent crude edged down just 2 cents to close at $70.69 a barrel and WTI crude settled 21 cents weaker at $65.21 a barrel, gasoline futures added 28 points to hit $1.9228 per gallon, heating oil jumped a sharp 15.02 center higher to settle at $2.7356 per gallon and natural gas futures shot up 43.6 cents to settle at $4.354 per MMBTU.
As of this morning, the latest 1-5 day GEFS forecast sees below-normal temperatures across the eastern half of the country. Over the next 6-10 days, however, the GEFS sees more mixed temperatures in the Midwest with below-normal temperatures expected to persist in the Northeast.