Written on: November 2, 2026
Monday, November 2, 2026
Crude oil and refined product futures are seeing some losses on Monday following reports of Washington looking to pursue diplomacy before resuming strikes against Iran and despite gains in US stock market index futures. Market traders are looking ahead to the final October US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, the US ISM Manufacturing Index and to US construction spending figures for further direction.
In the news this morning, Bloomberg reports that US President Donald Trump stated he wants give diplomacy with Iran one more chance before deciding to reignite a military campaign against Tehran after the midterm elections. According to Axios, President Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and conveyed that he wanted to let negotiations play out for now, per the Wall Street Journal.
In economic news out of Asia, China’s Manufacturing PMI for October came in at 52.0, down slightly from 52.1 the month prior but in line with the Bloomberg survey consensus. India’s final October HSBC Manufautring PMI came in at 54.7, missing forecasts at 54.9. The Nikkei in Japan closed 0.33% lower overnight, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite in China gained 0.42% and 1.08%, respectively. In European economic news this morning, the final October S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs for France (49.5) and for the Eurozone as a whole (52.7) both came in above their respective flash estimates of 49.3 and 52.4. The indexes for Germany and the UK, meanwhile, were finalized at 54.2 and 52.8, respectively, as widely expected. On the other hand, retail sales in Germany tumbled 2.0% lower month-on-month in September, missing forecasts calling for a 0.4% uptick in sales. European equities were trading mixed about the unchanged mark this morning with the French CAC 40 up 0.1%, while the German DAX was down 0.1% and the UK FTSE 100 had lost 0.2%.
In the US, however, futures for the major stock market indexes are seeing gains of between 0.3% (Dow futures) and 0.8% (Nasdaq futures). Also supportive for crude oil prices, the US dollar had weakened by 0.3% against a basket of foreign currencies as of this writing.
Petroleum futures posted gains of over one percent last Friday amid heightened concerns that the US may resume strikes against Iran and with some weakness in the US dollar index, despite a sell-off in US equities and flat-to-lower trade in European stock market indexes. Brent crude settled $2.76 higher at $117.64 a barrel, WTI crude futures gained $2.12 to hit $104.12 a barrel, gasoline futures shot up 12.70 cents to settle at $3.3120 per gallon, heating oil futures closed 5.45 cents higher at $4.7905 per gallon and natural gas futures on NYMEX closed 5.4 cents weaker at $2.898 per MMBTU.
The 1-5 day GEFS outlook calls for mostly well-above-normal temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the country. The forecast over the next 6-10 days sees above-normal temperatures persisting in Midwest and Northeast, with more mixed temperatures forecasted in the southeastern US.
The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking an area of low pressure spotted just northeast of the Bahamas – giving it a lower 20% chance of cyclone formation over the next 7 days.